Wednesday, May 22, 2013

The Miracle of the Governorates: Muhafazat, Shabiyat, or Wilayaa

There is clearly one major factor in trying to establish a second United Arab Republic (UAR).  The failure of the first UAR between Egypt and Syria was the overwhelming dominance of Egyptians in both the united government and the united military.  The first UAR lasted barely from 1958 until 1961.  (During the same period there was also loose confederation with what was then North Yemen.)

While it was Syria who first proposed the Republic, out of fear of the growing dominance of the Communist Party of Syria, and the broad Syrian support for the Pan Arab ideals of Gamal Abdel Nassar of Egypt, it was Nassar, the Egyptian President,  and his terms for unification that doomed the Republic from the very beginning.

A unicameral 600 member National Assembly was divided 400 members for Egypt and 200 for Syria.  From that initial position of strength the Egyptian government, military and economic structure of the UAR became totally dominated by the Egyptian government.  The more Egypt benefited from unification the more Syrians suffered.

It is by reviewing the basic governmental flaws of the initial United Arab Republic that solutions can be implemented to avoid such total dominance by any one country or group in the second United Arab Republic.   The following is but an example but dramatically points out the great fact of the present and established number of governorates or Muhafazat (Egypt) 27, Shabiyat (Libya) 22 and Wilayat (Tunisia) 24.
It is this ratio of long standing governorates that is key to a balance of power within the new Republic, if the new Republic takes advantage of this good fortune.

The initial lesson to be learned is that in order to more equally divide the balance of power the new United Arab Republic should adapt a bicameral or upper and lower house form of legislative method.  The combination of this two body system and the utilization of the existing governorate structure will ensure not only the actual compromise of power sharing but also the underlying feeling of equality between nations that will be the key to long term success.

I would propose a lower house with 342 members and an upper house with 150.  This is very near the numbers now proposed by the current Egyptian constitution.  I would slightly alter the length of terms of the lower house to 4 years instead of 5 but continue the 6 year terms enacted for the upper house.  But the major alterations to both houses are suggested to be these:

The Lower House:

We must first start by dramatically pointing out the current population disparities with a United Arab Republic member countries.  Egypt, 85 million or 83% of the total population of a united country.  Tunisia 11 million citizens or 11% of the total population and Libya with 6 million or 6% in a United Arab Republic that would have 102 million people.  How to have both the appearance of equally access to power sharing but actual access to sharing power?

It is my proposal that the lower house consist of 142 members elected 2 from each governorate of the three existing countries.  (Of important note here, there are currently 73 governorates, but I have proposed that the  two governorates of the Sinai be given freely to the Kingdom of Jordan, and any subsequent resulting nation state of Jordan.  I will not go into detail here as to the reasons but will assume that it is done and that the governorate total is 71.)

To this number of 142 members add approximately 200 members, (give or take just a very few) to give a total in the lower house of 342 members.  The 200 members would come from assigned voting districts throughout the United Arab Republic based upon equal representation.  This would mean districts of approximately 500,000 citizens each, designated by perhaps an election commission or a court and ratified by the upper house and the President.  The districts would change every 10 years based upon census data to re-balance districts due to changing populations.  While the members would serve 4 year terms I would propose that 1/2 of the lower house members be elected every 2 years so that only 1/2 of the seats were up for contest in that 2 year period.  It would also be set that no two members elected by governorates would be elected in the same election.  Thus every two years the single member representing each respective governorate would be elected by the entire population of the governorate.

This would mean for the lower house that the following total memberships would be chosen in a 4 year, 2 election cycle.

 Libya would get 44 governorate seats and 12 proportional seats for a total of 56.  This is 16% of the 342 member assembly from a district with 6% of the population.

Tunisia would get 48 governorate seats and 22 proportional seats for a total of 70.  This is 20% of the 342 total seats from a district with 10% of the population.

Egypt would get 50 governorate seats and 166 proportional seats for a total of 216.  This is 63% of the 342 total seats from a district with 83% of the population.

Egyptian members would continue to dominate the clear majority of seats in the lower house.  It is my belief that slowly, over time, the populations of the Libyan and Tunisian sectors would achieve population growth greater than the Egyptian sector because of job opportunities and quality of life movement choices.  The 200 seats ratios may change over time with census figures always changing.

The Upper House:

The Upper House shall have approximately 150 members.  I the case of the Upper House they will almost entirely be chosen as 2 from each governorate of the United Arab Republic.  This amounts to 142 members. I would also encourage the addition of 8 members to be elected from the non Muslim populations of the United Arab Republic.  Initially this would be 6 members from the former Egypt and 1 each from Libya and Tunisia.

It is my hope and belief that the Upper House members should be elected to 6 year terms.  I would however highly recommend the addition of a 1/3 of the entire body be elected for those 6 years terms every 2 years.  This would mean that at any one given election only 1/3 of the body will be changing members.  This would instill continuity and avoid wild swings in political actions based upon trends of the moment in political ideas.

Again it is my hope that no two Upper House members be elected in the same election year.  I would also hope that the division of the 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 divisions also hew closely to being divided among the three current nations.   Thus Tunisia with 48 Upper House members would elect 16 each election cycle with the 1 non Muslim member being the only exception.

This would leave the representation of the Upper House as such.  45 seats for Libya (30%), 49 for Tunisia (33%) and 56 for Egypt (37%).  This gives both a combined Tunisia--Libya faction 63% of the votes and also non Muslims 5% of the votes in the Upper House.

Ideally this would mean that all legislation must pass both Lower and Upper Houses of the government that the ability for the citizens of Tunisia and Libya to feel represented fairly in the government would be based upon institutionalized facts and laws.

It is also my hope that this method would continue to direct shared power also to the many various and diverse governorates throughout the United Arab Republic.  Over time the balance between the three former nation states as a continuing concern for equality will disperse.  It is my belief that this very same system will then manifest itself to serve more of a populated group of governorates verses more sparsely populated governorates where ever they may be located.

But again, when first even remotely contemplating such an idea as a second United Arab Republic I was continually stopped from further serious pursuit by the knowledge of the vast difference in populations of the three possible countries for unity.   It was only that "AHA" moment when I realized the current governorate divisions within the three nations, and that they had been in existence, with few changes, for quite some time.

For this proposal, or any other proposal, whether it is  a political union or perhaps a common market of trade, or just closer ties to discuss common problems. there will be the constant need to acknowledge Egypt's overwhelming numerical numbers in reaching any sort of climate of equality of ideas and power sharing.

As I have state earlier, such ideas also as the capital being moved to Bayda Libya are also concepts of compromise that must continually be recognized and addressed.

And yet on a completely different basis of equality for success, it must be remembered that in a new United Arab Republic the lack of a border stretching from the Atlas mountains to Sudan also means that literally millions of citizens have a chance to live in a new place and start a new life.

In a country that once had 6 million people, Libya currently has over 1 million of those citizens living in either Egypt or Tunisia as refugees and unwelcome at home at this time.  And yet Tunisia and Egypt also have millions unemployed.

One of the great promises of a United Arab Republic is that of those 1 million displaced Libyans there are 1 million Egyptians or Tunisians to take their places.  It is that fluid movement of people, ideas, investment money and rule of law, that knows no borders between old countries that will drive the United Arab Republic to success.








No comments:

Post a Comment