The preceding link to an article by SWP-Berlin.org is an in depth and compelling overview of the various factions within Libya on a national, regional, city and tribal level.
The one fact, however, that stuck in my mind after reading the entire article was that over 1 million Libyans are now diaspora in Tunisia and Egypt. Most of them fled before, during and after the revolt. Most fled in fear of their lives because they had been a part of the government, educational or business community before the revolution.
As in the collapse of the Iraqi invasion by the US in 2003, the wholesale removal of anyone from the Baath Party from any similar role in the government has been the single most political, economic, social and humanitarian mistake of the entire region.
Vast numbers of Iraqi's were members of the Baath party just to hold a job. In nations the world over when a new political party comes to power the entire membership of the party leaving power are not hounded from their jobs and forced to flee for their lives.
At the very time that Libya needs many of the talents and knowledge of the vast majority of those million people who have fled, they remain refugees in neighboring countries.
Sadly the reverse is undoubtedly true of both Tunisians and Egyptians as well.
This can also be seen throughout the Levant from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. Hundreds of thousands of ordinary citizens fleeing to neighboring countries, mostly Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey to escape horrific outcomes.
This is not only a tragedy on a monumental scale it is the single most compelling reason for Tunisia, Libya and Egypt to seek unification.
The same is true of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and the Palestinian Territories.
In a united Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, a United Arab Republic if you will, the hundreds of thousands of diaspora could be put to use rebuilding a united nation. If, in the short term, their talents are not wanted in their former home countries, in a United Arab Republic they could find productive use in another part of the nation.
This is certainly not only true of the diaspora who have fled, but also to many of those who have remained within their respective borders of Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.
I am thinking of those of the armed forces, police, civil service, judicial system and business owners and professionals that could easily find work in another city or governorate. This is of course based upon the idea that an Egyptian police officer could just as easily be a police officer in Tunisia or a judge from Libya could also be a judge in Egypt.
But most importantly is is about the literally hundreds of thousands of small business owners who are desperately needed to rebuild a thriving economy who are kept idle in a foreign land. This is a resource, even more precious than oil, that is going to waste.
There is also the continuing scenario that many of the most influential business elite, in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt alike who fled sometimes decades ago to seek lives in distant lands. Many have now returned home to countries such as Libya and are demanding old businesses and properties be returned to them. While this may be the moral and legal option it still does not justify completely throwing away the experience and talents many of those who took their places gained over the years. It is a vital resource that is needed within the area of the United Arab Republic. And if the three nations are to survive economically in the crucial next few years it is going to take everyone, and all their talents, to make it work and thrive.
In all three current countries you have almost exactly the same principle groups vying for a voice in the coming society. Whether religious, ethnic, tribal, educational or economic back round they are all to be found in all three countries. They will all still be there in a United Arab Republic.
There will still be the compromises and legal structures to be worked out whether it is just Tunisia or Libya or Egypt or the United Arab Republic.
The one advantage that the United Arab Republic has is that not only are all the physical resources of each individual country now available to the group, so to can the human resources be brought to greater use somewhere in the much larger United Arab Republic.
None of the three countries at this stage of the recovery has the luxury of ignoring the talents of up to 1/6th of its entire population as in the case of Libya.
Again it is worth repeating that in the case of all three revolts, the main goal of all three was jobs and social justice. All three. It is still the main goal. The United Arab Republic can get them there much sooner.
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