Thursday, July 25, 2013

Water projects for the Nile Basin

Actually Egypt, if it worked with all it's neighbors instead of threatening them, has an almost embarrassing set of options for literally over 100 + billion cubic meters of additional water each year in addition to what flows past the Aswan right now. As to whether that water should flow past the Aswan is another subject.

First if Egypt stopped subsidizing fuel and just gave vouchers to poor people they would save billions. Those billions could be used almost immediately to begin to repair and upgrade the irrigation, water supply and waste management of the entire Nile River. This amount alone (estimated at some 6 billion cubic meters per year currently wasted) is more than the amount of water annually that the Renaissance Dam would stop in the few years it took to fill. After that the water could flow again as usual and both sides win.

Secondly there are numerous projects envisioned for the Congo basin to stop the horrific flooding that happens each year in the upper reaches of the basin. This annual flooding destroys vast amounts of area each year and disrupts tens of thousands of lives. 

Two proposals, one to send flood waters from the upper Uele River basin via tunnel to Uganda to Lake Edward could benefit both nations and add additional water to the flow of the White Nile.

The second proposal, long ago put forward by an Italian engineering firm would create the Transaqua Project to divert as much as 100 billion cubic meters of water per year from the upper reaches of the Congo highlands river basin and send the water northwards in a canal instead. The canal would not only stop flooding below the canal it would create an inland water highway for a vast region currently not very accessible. 

As there is also a similar project envisioned on the Congo/Central African Republic Border called the Oubangui Water Transfer Project that would transfer up to 50 billion cubic meters of Water each year from a proposed Polombo Dam on the Congo River to the Lake Chad basin in Chad. The 50 billion cubic meters would just keep the Lake and basin at parity. 

But by splitting the 100 billion cubic meters of the Transaqua between half going to the Oubanqui Project and the other half going along the Mbomao River between the Central African Republic and the Congo into the Nile basin this would mean the Lake Chad project would actually increase the Lake yearly and return it to a much larger size. The lake could then again eventually  be used by people in four nations that border the enlarged lake.

(There is also some who envision transferring another 50 billion or so cubic meters from another stretch of the Congo and sending it north to the Uele River to also send it downstream to the Polombo Dam but this in not included in current figures.  However is this was a reality the amount diverted from the Congo Basin to the Nile Basin could double to 100 billion cubic meters per year).  

The use of the Mbomao route would also mean that the water could be diverted by way of Wau South Sudan to enter the Bahr al Ghazal River north of the Sudd swamp area and thus the entire amount of 50 billion cubic meters of water would bypass the Sudd. 

Then there is also the envisioned Jonglei Canal to also bypass the Sudd with up to 40 billion cubic meters of water per year. However with the addition of the Mbomao-Ghazal transfer system there would need only be something like 20 billion cubic meters or even less bypass the Sudd and allow the Sudd ecological area to maintain its current rich  biodiversity.  Agricultural usage along side the Sudd would then benefit more of the people of South Sudan.  

That comes up to something like 70 to 75 additional billion cubic meters of water flowing below the Sudd each year.  This amount basically equals the current flow of the Blue Nile for Sudan and Egypt as of today.    And for each basin providing the water it is actually doing them a huge favor. As to the diversion of 150 billion cubic meters of water from the upper Congo Basin, the Congo currently sends something like 1.2 trillion +  cubic meters of water into the Atlantic each year unused.   So the amount taken for the Nile and Chad basins would be a little more than 10 %

The next point to be considered is that Sudan and South Sudan  have literally millions of acres or hectares of unused arable farm land going to waste. Instead of sending the vast majority of the 70 billion cubic meters below the Aswan, to utilize this water in the Sudan and South Sudan would be both more productive as well as perhaps allow for some water used in the Lower Nile to be put to non agricultural uses. 

The final almost embarrassing gigantic source of water for Egypt would be to lift water from the Mediterranean Sea to the El Difta Plateau on the northwest side of the Qattara Depression perhaps by wind power or solar or both.  Between the height of the Plateau and the steep drop, the amount of sea water that could be desalinated using the high pressure of the drop is almost limited only to the length of the Plateau.   Through better water management both above and below the Aswan it is also possible that a substantial portion of Nile water could also be diverted each year to help fill the Depression.  

The Depression could hold eventually, if only raised to sea level, something along the lines of 1,200 cubic kilometers, yes cubic kilometers of fresh water.  It would be twice the size of Lebanon.  And it could conceivably be raised above sea level a ways to hold even more water.  At any level, the eastern shoreline could become a very viable alternative for living space instead of along the Nile.  The southwestern border could remain park preserve area.   The addition of such a large body of water would also increase the amount of wind near the northern plateau in pumping water into the inland sea and for usage as power elsewhere in the nation.  There would also be the possibility of wind turbines in the water.   

For a nation that built the pyramids thousands of years ago, to help construct a few pipelines and canals in the Congo, Upper Nile basins and create a massive lake in the desert should be relatively simpler. 

As for financing I would believe all the upper nations, because they would all benefit from the projects, as well as nations such as China and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States who could all get food from the Sudan agricultural basin would be more than happy to pitch in.  And Egypt, instead of being the demanding villain, would be a happy neighbor in a happy neighborhood.  

As for the Qattara project, removing that amount of water from the ocean system would be a handy project for industrial countries wanting to offset the effects of industrialization and sea level rise. 

And of course it could employ literally tens of thousands of Egyptians in current and future jobs. Oil fields in the Depression could just be converted to continue pumping under water. The moisture pump created by the great body of water could change the entire dynamic between the Depression and the Nile and beyond.  Wild life in the Depression now could just be moved to higher ground along the southwestern  banks of the inland sea.  

OR......... one could just threaten to shoot someone or hold their breath until they turned blue.

 I would think that a nation with literally multiple centuries of massive works projects history might want to go with the "helping thy neighbor" method instead. It would be a group of projects to look back on with pride in the coming decades.  

Monday, July 8, 2013

Comment by me in Al-Monitor.com, July 8, 2013

What key people in government, the press, academia and the average person in the street in Egypt, along with those same groups in Libya and Tunisia need to do is read the US Declaration of Independence, the Articles of Confederation, the Federalist Papers and the US Constitution, making sure to note the dates. I assure you it would be most revealing and perhaps have many rethinking myths about how nations are founded and succeed. 

Very careful reading of the US Declaration of Independence one finds that it is not a document announcing the formation of a single nation to remove British tyranny. It is a document announcing that 13 separate states are joining together to remove British tyranny, but that they intend to remain 13 separate states at the end of the revolt. For well over 100 years most of the states had related one on one with Britain and with each other. Each had their own separate governments and legislative bodies. There was not a lot of love lost between most of the states up until the time of the Revolution. It was only through necessity over time that the 13 states realized that they would have to form a more singular nation to not only win the war but to survive afterwards. They could not make it individually. Even at the start of the new nation it was under the Articles of Confederation that basically gave the central government the right to deal with foreign powers and that was about it. All other powers rested with each individual state.

Again the states began to realize that going it alone individually  each state was not going to prosper. A good 13 years after the Declaration, and very careful arguments in the Federalist Papers, the US adapted a remarkable separation and balance of powers in the US Constitution to please all sides in order to form a worthy functioning government. Only then, 13 years later did they form a truly United States of America. It should be noted however that for about the first 50 years it was, as a rule, stated that "The United States ARE". It was only after long slow integration did the phrase become widely stated as "The United States IS". Even today, some 235+ years later the US is still a work in progress. 

This realization must come very soon to Egypt, Libya and Tunisia that they do not have a common enemy in the form of a foreign nation. What they do have is a common enemy in that they are all economic and political catastrophe's waiting to happen. But as a single nation they have unbelievable potential to find those resources, talents, markets, diversity, and yes similarities that already exist within a united and common nation. Only in sharing all of their common resources will they have a very great chance to succeed both economically and politically. 

The same balance and separation of powers needed by Egypt to accommodate both Coptics and Salafists is the same kind of compromise needed to find common ground between Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. If structured well it could very well lead to the addition of Sudan in a few short years. 

A newly united nation would have the ability to rebuild Libya, drastically improve the water system in Egypt, re-invigorate markets from tourism, agriculture, transportation, apparel, building materials, the list goes on. 

And at the core of such a transformation has to be reconciliation across the board. Libya cannot have 1/6th of its population stranded as diaspora in Egypt and Tunisia. Such talent, in all nations, cannot be wasted. Any progress has to start now, immediately with reaching out to all involved that the Muslim Brotherhood must be a part of any solution going forward. Many must keep positions in the government. Their press must be allowed to speak. You cannot build a greater nation without them. 

Three years ago the Arab Spring was impossible/unthinkable. One month ago a change in Egyptian government was impossible/unthinkable. A United Arab Republic of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia might not only be not impossible, it might be an absolute imperative to economic, political, cultural and humanitarian success in the entire Arab region.

bit.ly/16gf9Do 

@tms5510. One might find just the idea, not even the fulfillment, but again the idea of a United Arab Republic might find the nations of the Levant also realizing that they are much better off as one large nation of their own, as was envisioned in the early 20th century before the West carved it up. People speak constantly of the disintegration of many of the nations of the Levant. I think the opposite might some day soon become the reality when they all come to realize that they are better off as one large nation than as a group of 5 or 8 or 10 smaller nations. Egypt, Libya and Tunisia could lead the way.

bit.ly/11kckhj