Monday, April 8, 2013

Posted to The Economist, April 5, 2013 video "Time to Break Bread" comment section.


Egypt really needs to go even one step further than sharing power with other political parties in Egypt.

Egypt needs to unite with Tunisia and Libya asap. A new United Arab Republic if you will. Common market, common currency.  Move the capital to neutral fourth city (from current three) to say Bayda Libya.

But all three current governments realize by now that going it alone is currently not working.  And most likely will not for some time to come.  Unified they not only have a chance, they have a very good chance to dramatically succeed.

I will hit highlights.  Actual implementation and advantages too numerous to list here.

New unified Constitution would include bicameral parliamentary legislature with upper house based upon 1 or 2 Representatives from current governorates.  So Tunisia 24, Libya 22 and Egypt 25 (see below).  This would give Tunisia and Libya commanding majority in the upper house and checks and balances.  Lower house per person vote. Egypt's favor.   The more the unification is "marketed" as the unification of 71 governorates and not 3 countries the better.

To write a constitution to satisfy all three countries respective citizens and interests should make for a more balanced and ideal framework for government.  Starting from total scratch in a new capital, away from Tunis, Tripoli and Cairo and powers that be would perhaps be a big factor.

Each of these three countries have great assets and strengths to offer a united country.  Each also has something the other country or both vitally need.

With say 40% of current Libyan resource revenue (and all Egyptian) for national domestic use and 60% for use for export and profits designated for Libya region for say 10 years this should make all happy.  This should however cover much of subsidies in the short term, and ease subsidies much quicker.

Libya gets to reinvest in infrastructure, advance the economy using Egyptian and Tunisian labor and management skills respectfully.  Libya also gains expertise and access to vast domestic agriculture, tourism and service sector knowledge and resources.

Tunisia can put its EU connections and knowledge of open government to use to show the way for a much larger market for both exports and imports.  It also can reach out to other middle market businesses to encourage investment and expansion. Tunisia can also be the beachhead of the return of tourism to the region, spreading across Libya to Egypt.  The industry needs to have more domestic workers than foreign however.  Perhaps Coptic if needed.

Egypt has the large consumer market, agricultural base, work force for all types of reconstruction in the expanded nation.

Police from Tunisia to Egypt, Egyptians to Tunisia and Libya.  Soldiers and civil servants following suit.

Powers that be in Egypt would hopefully see not a dilution of power but opportunity to expand their reach in a bigger pond.  But also Powers elsewhere will be doing the same thing in reverse.  Cross border mergers and common markets should be encourages.

Egypt also makes dramatic move to cede complete and total sovereignty of the two Sinai Governorates to Jordan.  No conditions. Jordan gets the bad, (dealing with tribal Bedouin and Hamas) as well as the good.  West Sinai oil field and Tourism industry.  Jordan is much more culturally and sensitive to Bedouin complaints and should find solutions easier than Egypt.   Tourist industry should rebound greatly under Jordanian rule over Egyptian MB rule.

Vastly expanded Jordan also would have resources, land and regional good will and help to deal with massive influx of refugees from all over the Levant.  Besides Israel, Palestinian Territories would also have only Jordan as their other neighbor.  A long term plus in any future peace initiatives in the region.